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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.99 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model