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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread -7.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NE
50.8%
MIA
49.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Matt Moore (MIA) +0.463 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.253 EPA/dropback
  • NE defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NE

Danny Amendola WR Out Ankle
Cyrus Jones CB Out Knee
Malcolm Mitchell WR Doubtful Knee
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Tom Brady QB Questionable Thigh
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Matt Slater WR Questionable Foot

MIA

Ryan Tannehill QB Out Knee
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Knee
Byron Maxwell CB Doubtful Ankle
Jay Ajayi RB Questionable Shoulder
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Knee
Mario Williams DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 35
–
MIA 14

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:35 TD NE (7:35) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-M.Bennett for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 03:56 TD NE (3:56) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-M.Floyd for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – MIA 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG NE (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 17 – MIA 0
  • Q2 03:25 FG NE (3:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 20 – MIA 0
  • Q2 00:36 TD MIA (:36) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 14-J.Landry for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-14-J.Landry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NE 20 – MIA 6
  • Q3 08:46 TD MIA (8:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – MIA 13
  • Q3 07:05 TD NE (7:05) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-36-T.Lippett was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. NE 26 – MIA 14
  • Q4 05:34 TD NE (5:34) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 33 – MIA 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:51) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 33 yards to NE 45, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 45.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:48) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NE 20, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman. PENALTY on NE-22-J.Coleman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (3:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:44) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to NE 19, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 30 for 11 yards (45-M.Hull). MIA-45-M.Hull was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on NE-92-G.Grissom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 19.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to MIA 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for no gain (31-J.Jones). FUMBLES (31-J.Jones), and recovers at MIA 41. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:40) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to NE 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 19 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:00) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to MIA 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:54) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NE 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-40-L.Pitts.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 98 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:43) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to MIA 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to NE 44 for 14 yards (43-N.Ebner).