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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 35

What Actually Happened

(3:54) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NE 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-40-L.Pitts.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.29 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model