Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 33 yards to NE 45, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.06 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model