4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 14 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 38 yards to NE 16, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model