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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 98

New England Patriots 35 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to MIA 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to NE 44 for 14 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 98, worth -5.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 53, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model