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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CHI
43.8%
MIN
56.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CHI

Leonard Floyd LB Doubtful Concussion
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Shoulder
Deon Bush S Questionable Ankle
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Hamstring
David Fales QB Questionable right Thumb
Cre'von LeBlanc CB Questionable Knee
Bobby Massie T Questionable Toe
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee
Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

MIN

Adrian Peterson RB Out Knee
Andrew Sendejo S Out Knee
Alex Boone G Doubtful Back
Stefon Diggs WR Doubtful Hip
Laquon Treadwell WR Doubtful Ankle
Charles Johnson WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 10
–
MIN 38

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:45 TD MIN (11:45) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 21-J.McKinnon for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 14:57 FG MIN (14:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. CHI 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 12:58 TD MIN (12:58) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – MIN 16
  • Q2 01:52 TD CHI (1:52) (Shotgun) 81-C.Meredith pass short right to 12-M.Barkley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – MIN 17
  • Q2 00:21 TD MIN (:21) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 17-J.Wright for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – MIN 23
  • Q2 00:02 FG CHI (:02) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 10 – MIN 24
  • Q4 12:16 TD MIN (12:16) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 21-J.McKinnon. 21-J.McKinnon right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – MIN 30
  • Q4 10:04 TD MIN (10:04) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley sacked at CHI 33 for -4 yards (sack split by 98-L.Joseph and 99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (98-L.Joseph) [98-L.Joseph], touched at CHI 33, RECOVERED by MIN-97-E.Griffen at CHI 20. 97-E.Griffen for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – MIN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (14:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at CHI 42 for 36 yards (53-J.Timu).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 60%

    (9:52) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 23 yards to CHI 15, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 45-B.Addison.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 62%

    (5:03) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short left to 81-C.Meredith pushed ob at MIN 29 for 8 yards (24-C.Munnerlyn). MIN-29-X.Rhodes was injured during the play.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:11) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to CHI 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 45-B.Addison MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 24, RECOVERED by MIN-27-J.Kearse at CHI 21. 27-J.Kearse to CHI 21 for no gain (80-M.Pruitt). The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (14:18) 24-J.Howard left end to CHI 40 for no gain (29-X.Rhodes).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:30) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 9 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 13-S.Hill pass incomplete short right to 21-J.McKinnon [96-A.Hicks].

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:08) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.