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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:52) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 23 yards to CHI 15, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 45-B.Addison.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP