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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 3

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:57) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 3, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP