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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 55

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 38

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model