Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 71

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 38

(7:30) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 9 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model