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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 60

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 24-J.Howard left end to CHI 40 for no gain (29-X.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model