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HC Hue Jackson
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2016-12-18 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 10.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CLE
24.7%
BUF
75.3%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Robert Griffin (CLE): -0.383 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.186 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
BUF 25
Projected margin: BUF by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CLE

Dominique Alexander LB Questionable Abdomen

BUF

Lerentee McCray LB Out Concussion
Cordy Glenn T Doubtful Back
Zach Brown LB Questionable Ankle
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot
Kyle Williams DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
BUF 33

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 FG BUF (10:17) 2-D.Carpenter 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. CLE 0 – BUF 3
  • Q1 03:54 FG CLE (3:54) 3-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – BUF 3
  • Q1 00:03 TD BUF (:03) 35-M.Gillislee left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – BUF 9
  • Q2 00:40 TD BUF (:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep left to 85-C.Clay for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-J.Meder]. Caught 2 yds. into end zone. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 3 – BUF 16
  • Q3 09:10 TD CLE (9:10) (Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin scrambles up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – BUF 17
  • Q3 05:53 TD BUF (5:53) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – BUF 23
  • Q3 01:35 FG CLE (1:35) 3-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 13 – BUF 24
  • Q4 12:45 TD BUF (12:45) 25-L.McCoy right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – BUF 30
  • Q4 07:25 FG BUF (7:25) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. CLE 13 – BUF 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:31) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to BUF 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis. Punt credited to BUF 38 (spot of foul). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 38.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (10:17) 2-D.Carpenter 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%

    (3:54) 3-C.Parkey 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:46) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to BUF 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate to BUF 22 for 3 yards (39-E.Reynolds).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to CLE 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-M.Alford pushed ob at CLE 32 for 12 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to BUF 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 18 for 8 yards (53-J.Schobert). Return credited to BUF 17 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-28-R.Darby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 17.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to CLE 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-M.Alford to CLE 20 for 11 yards (50-R.Humber).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 19 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 85%

    (1:35) 3-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 19 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to BUF 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at 50 for 7 yards (80-R.Louis).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (7:25) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to BUF 41, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at CLE 30 for 29 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (2:11) 31-J.Williams right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (53-J.Schobert; 24-I.Campbell).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin right end pushed ob at CLE 45 for 6 yards (20-C.Graham).