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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 33 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 31-J.Williams right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (53-J.Schobert; 24-I.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +4.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model