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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 57

Buffalo Bills 17 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to CLE 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 15-M.Alford to CLE 20 for 11 yards (50-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP