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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 13 – Buffalo Bills 33

What Actually Happened

(:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin right end pushed ob at CLE 45 for 6 yards (20-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -1.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model