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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 30 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model