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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 3-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model