4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2016-12-11 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

DEN
28.0%
TEN
72.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TEN on 7 more days rest than DEN
  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): +0.172 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
TEN 28
Projected margin: TEN by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DEN

Casey Kreiter LS Out Calf
Brandon Marshall LB Out Hamstring
Bennie Fowler WR Questionable Knee
Trevor Siemian QB Questionable Foot

TEN

Jurrell Casey DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 10
–
TEN 13

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:33 TD TEN (7:33) 29-D.Murray left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 05:53 FG TEN (5:53) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. DEN 0 – TEN 10
  • Q2 01:32 FG TEN (1:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. DEN 0 – TEN 13
  • Q4 10:04 TD DEN (10:04) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 10-E.Sanders for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-10-E.Sanders, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 6 – TEN 13
  • Q4 04:33 FG DEN (4:33) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 10 – TEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:43) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to TEN 30, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 64%

    (5:53) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:31) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to TEN 27, Center-45-T.Gafford. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 44 for 17 yards (45-T.Gafford).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 28%

    (3:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to DEN 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to TEN 37, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:44) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to TEN 3, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 35%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 15 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 31%

    (8:10) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to TEN 14, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to DEN 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 37 for no gain (50-N.Palmer). PENALTY on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 37.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:35) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon pass short left to 14-C.Latimer pushed ob at TEN 49 for 16 yards (47-A.Blake).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Thomas.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:47) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to DEN 38, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-K.Raymond to TEN 41 for 21 yards (52-A.Wallace). PENALTY on TEN-48-B.Brinkley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to DEN 45, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 87-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 16 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 93%

    (4:33) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 28%

    (2:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to DEN 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-10-T.McBride.