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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 16

Denver Broncos 7 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:33) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model