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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to TEN 30, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model