Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 99

Tennessee Titans 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to DEN 38, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-K.Raymond to TEN 41 for 21 yards (52-A.Wallace). PENALTY on TEN-48-B.Brinkley, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

The Three Options

GO -4.12 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.08 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 99, worth -6.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model