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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to DEN 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 37 for no gain (50-N.Palmer). PENALTY on DEN-31-J.Simmons, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.98 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP