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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 46

Tennessee Titans 13 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model