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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2016-12-04 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

DET
36.3%
NO
63.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.214 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.148 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET on 3 more days rest than NO

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
NO 28
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Ankle
Don Carey S Questionable Hamstring
Marvin Jones WR Questionable Thigh
DeAndre Levy LB Questionable Knee
Theo Riddick RB Questionable Ankle
Tahir Whitehead LB Questionable Knee

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Daniel Lasco RB Out Hamstring
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 28
–
NO 13

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:18 FG DET (8:18) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – NO 0
  • Q2 13:05 TD DET (13:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 25-T.Riddick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0 DET 9 – NO 0
  • Q2 05:11 FG NO (5:11) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DET 10 – NO 3
  • Q2 00:59 FG DET (:59) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 13 – NO 3
  • Q2 00:05 FG NO (:05) 3-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DET 13 – NO 6
  • Q3 09:00 FG DET (9:00) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 16 – NO 6
  • Q3 01:46 FG DET (1:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 19 – NO 6
  • Q4 13:40 TD NO (13:40) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 29-J.Kuhn left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – NO 12
  • Q4 11:50 TD DET (11:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 15-G.Tate for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 29, YAC 37 DET 25 – NO 13
  • Q4 07:15 FG DET (7:15) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 28 – NO 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (8:18) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DET 8, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-37-C.Banjo.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DET 13, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-87-T.Lewis.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:02) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NO 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 87-T.Lewis to DET 48 for 24 yards (32-T.Wilson).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (5:11) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (:59) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (9:00) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (1:46) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:21) 6-T.Morstead punts 19 yards to DET 46, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 71%

    (7:15) 5-M.Prater 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 47%

    (2:48) 6-S.Martin punts 32 yards to NO 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.