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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 14

Detroit Lions 13 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.24 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model