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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DET 13, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model