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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 9

Detroit Lions 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP