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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 81

Detroit Lions 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NO 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 87-T.Lewis to DET 48 for 24 yards (32-T.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.97 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 38, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model