Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(5:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to DET 8, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-37-C.Banjo.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.95 EP
56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 58, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model