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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
30.9%
MIA
69.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Colin Kaepernick (SF): -0.081 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 18
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SF

Quinton Dial DT Questionable Knee
Aaron Lynch LB Questionable Ankle
Torrey Smith WR Questionable Shoulder
Jimmie Ward CB Questionable Concussion

MIA

Mike Pouncey C Out Hip
Branden Albert T Doubtful Wrist
Xavien Howard CB Doubtful Knee
Ndamukong Suh DT Questionable Knee
Kenyan Drake RB Questionable Knee
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Knee
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Shoulder
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Neck
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Calf
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Shoulder
Mario Williams DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 24
–
MIA 31

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 TD SF (9:51) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 28-C.Hyde for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 12:28 TD MIA (12:28) 64-J.Brendel reported in as eligible. 23-J.Ajayi left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 02:26 TD MIA (2:26) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 80-D.Sims for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – MIA 13
  • Q3 12:34 FG MIA (12:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. SF 7 – MIA 17
  • Q3 07:39 TD SF (7:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 88-G.Celek for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – MIA 17
  • Q3 01:40 TD MIA (1:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – MIA 23
  • Q4 11:41 TD MIA (11:41) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 88-L.Carroo for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 14 – MIA 30
  • Q4 07:52 TD SF (7:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short left to 82-T.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – MIA 31
  • Q4 02:20 FG SF (2:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 24 – MIA 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to SF 38, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:30) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to SF 19, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:04) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to MIA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 10, and recovers at MIA 10. 19-J.Grant to MIA 9 for -1 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:58) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to MIA 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 6 yards (86-K.Nelson; 81-R.Streater). SF-56-S.Skov was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (12:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:36) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to MIA 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-J.Landry to MIA 40 for 1 yard (57-M.Wilhoite).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to MIA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:14) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to SF 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-J.Kerley to SF 20 for 2 yards (45-M.Hull).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 15 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 21%

    (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 14-C.Harper ran ob at MIA 34 for 16 yards [30-B.Rambo].

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (2:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:50) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to SF 38, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 82-T.Smith ran ob at MIA 46 for 17 yards.