Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to MIA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 10, and recovers at MIA 10. 19-J.Grant to MIA 9 for -1 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.11 EP
73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model