4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 31 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to SF 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 17-J.Kerley to SF 20 for 2 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.30 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model