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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 31 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to SF 38, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.66 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP