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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 14-C.Harper ran ob at MIA 34 for 16 yards [30-B.Rambo].

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.04 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model