Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Miami Dolphins 31

(:50) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 82-T.Smith ran ob at MIA 46 for 17 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.26 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -0.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model