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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 20:30 FedExField, Landover US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

GB
42.0%
WAS
58.0%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.186 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 23 mph
  • GB defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 22
–
WAS 25
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

GB

T.J. Lang G Out Foot
Damarious Randall CB Out Groin
Jake Ryan LB Out Ankle
J.C. Tretter C Out Knee
Jared Cook TE Questionable Ankle
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Hamstring

WAS

Nick Sundberg LS Questionable Back
DeSean Jackson WR Questionable Shoulder
Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 24
–
WAS 42

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:03 TD WAS (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 11-D.Jackson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-36-L.Gunter, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. GB 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 09:34 TD GB (9:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-36-S.Cravens, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 6 – WAS 7
  • Q2 03:41 FG GB (3:41) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 10 – WAS 7
  • Q2 00:45 TD WAS (:45) 32-R.Kelley right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – WAS 13
  • Q3 09:28 FG WAS (9:28) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way. GB 10 – WAS 16
  • Q3 02:07 TD WAS (2:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 80-J.Crowder for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – WAS 22
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 44-J.Starks for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – WAS 22
  • Q4 14:36 TD WAS (14:36) (No Huddle) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 88-P.Garcon for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – WAS 28
  • Q4 10:08 TD GB (10:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Cook for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – WAS 29
  • Q4 03:59 TD WAS (3:59) 96-H.Bates reported in as eligible. 32-R.Kelley left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – WAS 35
  • Q4 02:30 TD WAS (2:30) 32-R.Kelley right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-95-D.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 24 – WAS 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:07) 10-J.Schum punts 34 yards to WAS 41, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:58) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to GB 34, Center-59-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:41) 10-J.Schum punts 58 yards to WAS 6, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 15%

    (8:07) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to GB 10, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 18-R.Cobb.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:58) 10-J.Schum punts 46 yards to WAS 37, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 45 for 8 yards (51-K.Fackrell).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 78%

    (12:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles right end to WAS 18 for 7 yards.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:10) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to GB 34, Center-59-R.Lovato. 18-R.Cobb to GB 44 for 10 yards (52-T.Garvin). GB-39-D.Goodson was injured during the play. He is Out. 39 - Goodson has an injured knee

  • Q2 GB 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%

    (3:41) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (9:28) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 89%

    (5:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:12) 8-K.Cousins right guard to WAS 43 for 2 yards (98-L.Guion). QB sneak

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short middle intended for 88-T.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 50-M.Spaight at GB 41. 50-M.Spaight to GB 33 for 8 yards (68-K.Murphy).