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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 19

Washington Commanders 13 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model