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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 83

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 10-J.Schum punts 46 yards to WAS 37, Center-61-B.Goode. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 45 for 8 yards (51-K.Fackrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.27 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 83, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP