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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 24 – Washington Commanders 42

What Actually Happened

(1:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short middle intended for 88-T.Montgomery INTERCEPTED by 50-M.Spaight at GB 41. 50-M.Spaight to GB 33 for 8 yards (68-K.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -2.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model