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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.81 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model