Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 62

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(12:58) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to GB 34, Center-59-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.29 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model