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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NYJ
42.5%
MIA
57.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA on 7 more days rest than NYJ
  • MIA offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 21
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NYJ

Bruce Carter LB Out Quadricep
Kellen Davis TE Out Elbow
Darron Lee LB Out Ankle
Nick Mangold C Doubtful Ankle
Brent Qvale T Doubtful Neck
Ryan Clady T Questionable Shoulder
Breno Giacomini T Questionable Shoulder
Brandon Shell T Questionable Shoulder
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

MIA

Jordan Cameron TE Out Concussion
Xavien Howard CB Out Knee
Dion Sims TE Out Concussion
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Ankle
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Hamstring
Laremy Tunsil T Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 23
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:30 FG NYJ (8:30) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – MIA 0
  • Q1 05:04 TD MIA (5:04) 23-J.Ajayi left tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – MIA 6
  • Q1 00:42 TD NYJ (:42) 70-D.Dozier reported in as eligible. 22-M.Forte left tackle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – MIA 7
  • Q2 10:20 TD MIA (10:20) (Shotgun) 60-K.Urbik reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 85-D.Jones for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 10 – MIA 13
  • Q2 05:23 FG NYJ (5:23) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 13 – MIA 14
  • Q3 05:12 FG MIA (5:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. NYJ 13 – MIA 17
  • Q3 03:26 FG MIA (3:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. NYJ 13 – MIA 20
  • Q4 12:55 FG NYJ (12:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 16 – MIA 20
  • Q4 05:47 TD NYJ (5:47) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep middle to 89-J.Marshall for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 22 – MIA 20
  • Q4 05:29 TD MIA 2-N.Folk kicks 66 yards from NYJ 30 to MIA 4. 32-K.Drake for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – MIA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (8:30) 2-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (5:23) 2-N.Folk 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (2:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-J.Marshall MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 11. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 11 for no gain (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:37) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to MIA 43, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on MIA-32-K.Drake, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:42) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to NYJ 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 27 for 10 yards (45-M.Hull).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:08) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 93%

    (5:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (3:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (12:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 22%

    (10:24) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to NYJ 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:01) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 10, and recovers at MIA 17. 4-M.Darr to MIA 18 for 1 yard (26-C.Spiller). FUMBLES (26-C.Spiller), recovered by MIA-42-S.Paysinger at MIA 18. 42-S.Paysinger to MIA 18 for no gain (49-T.Jones).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:06) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to MIA 37, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry to MIA 46 for 9 yards (32-J.Burris).