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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 20 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(10:24) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to NYJ 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP