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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 10

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(12:55) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP