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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 17 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model