4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 79

New York Jets 23 – Miami Dolphins 27

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to MIA 37, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry to MIA 46 for 9 yards (32-J.Burris).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 36, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model