Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 87

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to MIA 43, Center-46-T.Purdum. 19-J.Grant for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on MIA-32-K.Drake, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 46.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.83 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 87, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model