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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 16:25 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DAL
54.0%
GB
46.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.071 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.335 EPA/dropback
  • DAL offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • DAL defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
GB 23
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DAL

Chaz Green T Out Foot
Tony Romo QB Out Back
Orlando Scandrick CB Out Hamstring
Lance Dunbar RB Questionable Knee
Dan Bailey K Questionable Back
Morris Claiborne CB Questionable Ankle
David Irving DE Questionable Concussion
Terrance Williams WR Questionable Shoulder
Jason Witten TE Questionable Chest
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Knee
Terrell McClain DT Questionable Shoulder
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Kyle Wilber LB Questionable Neck

GB

Chris Banjo S Out Hamstring
Jared Cook TE Out Ankle
Sam Shields CB Out Concussion
James Starks RB Questionable Knee
Eddie Lacy RB Questionable Ankle
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 30
–
GB 16

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:08 TD DAL (10:08) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DAL 6 – GB 0
  • Q1 05:14 FG GB (5:14) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. DAL 7 – GB 3
  • Q2 12:19 FG GB (12:19) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. DAL 7 – GB 6
  • Q2 06:05 FG DAL (6:05) 5-D.Bailey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 10 – GB 6
  • Q2 00:31 TD DAL (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-B.Butler for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – GB 6
  • Q3 07:02 FG DAL (7:02) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 20 – GB 6
  • Q4 14:51 FG GB (14:51) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. DAL 20 – GB 9
  • Q4 10:31 TD DAL (10:31) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 26 – GB 9
  • Q4 06:57 TD GB (6:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – GB 15
  • Q4 03:45 FG DAL (3:45) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 30 – GB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 90%

    (5:14) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:12) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to GB 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 83%

    (12:19) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 81%

    (6:05) 5-D.Bailey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 54%

    (2:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 18-R.Cobb (31-B.Jones).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:51) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to GB 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-T.Davis to GB 46 for 25 yards (41-K.Smith).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 26%

    (1:11) 10-J.Schum punts 47 yards to DAL 2, Center-61-B.Goode, downed by GB-61-B.Goode.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (7:02) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (14:51) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (3:45) 5-D.Bailey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 41 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%

    (:30) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 38 for 3 yards (50-B.Martinez).