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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.96 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP